Penn State at Northwestern Preview and Score Prediction

Penn State is set for a primetime battle against Northwestern on Friday night, also marking the opening of the Wildcats’ newly constructed $850 million Ryan Field.

The Nittany Lions are looking to rebound from an embarrassing loss to Wisconsin last weekend, but it may be a tougher matchup than anticipated in the preseason. Here’s what to know about the game.

Details and Odds

Date: Friday, Oct. 2

Time: 8 p.m. EDT

Location: New Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)

TV: FOX

Northwestern Record: 2-1

Spread: Penn State -2.5

Series History

The Nittany Lions lead the all-time series 16-6, meeting up fairly regularly since Penn State joined the Big Ten. The Wildcats won the most recent matchup last season by a 22-21 margin in Beaver Stadium, but the Nittany Lions have won nine of the last 12 meetings overall and five of the last six in Evanston.

Overview and Storylines

Both teams enter off losses the previous week, but Northwestern’s was more impressive — a 29-23 defeat against reigning national champions Indiana, while Penn State was upset as a multiple-score favorite against Wisconsin.

The Nittany Lions tumbled from No. 13 out of the AP Top 25 entirely, so both teams are now in the “others receiving votes” category entering the game.

The Wildcats also have an impressive win over Colorado by a 41-7 final score, while Penn State is still searching for its first win over a Power 4 team.

Matchup and Scheme Breakdown

One of head coach David Braun’s biggest acquisitions of the offseason was the hiring of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, along with an overhauled offensive staff that includes Jerry Neuheisel, who led UCLA to an improbable upset over Penn State last season as the interim offensive playcaller.

Unlike in recent seasons, Northwestern’s offense has looked good thus far, led by Michigan State transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles. He’s pacing for a career season including a strong second half against the Hoosiers a week ago.

The offense typically stays in 11 personnel but gets creative with pre-snap formations and a heavy dose of motion to keep defenders guessing.

The offensive line allowed 21 total pressures and three sacks against Indiana’s talented defensive line, particularly struggling against stunts. However, Penn State’s pass rush has struggled and may not be able to take advantage.

Part of that stems from Chiles holding the ball for a long time, but he also has escapability in the pocket to make up for it.

Defensive coordinator Tim McGarigle has done a good job since taking over in 2024, and this year is no different. The Wildcats are allowing a lot of yards (417.3 per game) but have held opponents to just 18 points, following a textbook “bend don’t break” style.

The defensive line has proven vulnerable against the run, particularly up the middle, but the Nittany Lions’ subpar run game may not be able to take advantage.

Players to Watch

Dating back to his time as a recruit, Aidan Chiles (0) has always had the tools to be a successful quarterback. He wasn’t able to put it all together during previous stops at Oregon State and Michigan State, but he’s playing good football to start the year.

Wide receiver Griffin Wilde (17) made up 36.4% of the team’s receiving yards a season ago and is leading the group through three games this year with 14 grabs for 245 yards and two touchdowns.

Tight end Luke Dehnicke (84), a transfer from Division II Minnesota Duluth, is another viable pass-catching threat, accounting for 11 receptions for 208 yards, including seven for 140 against the Hoosiers. He was downgraded to doubtful on the team’s Wednesday availability report, however, which would mark a big loss offensively for Northwestern.

Florida State transfer running back Gavin Sawchuk (27) has had a productive career, which began with three seasons at Oklahoma. He’s pacing the team with 25 carries for 143 yards.

Linebacker Kobe McKinzie (2) was a starter for Oklahoma last year before injury. This season, he has 22 tackles, a sack and a pass breakup.

In the secondary, defensive back Robert Fitzgerald (6) is the Big Ten’s leading returning tackler and leads the team so far this season with a whopping 38 takedowns.

Keys to Victory

Penn State: The Nittany Lions need their skill players to step up and make plays, winning contested catches and breaking tackles in the run game.

Northwestern: The Wildcats will likely seek to establish the run early and build off that with designed runs and option plays for Chiles.

Score Prediction

Northwestern 24, Penn State 20

Both teams enter with a single loss, but Northwestern’s resume is stronger. While the Wildcats pushed the reigning national champions to the limit and boast a dominant win over a power-conference opponent, Penn State suffered a home loss to an unranked Wisconsin team.

On top of that, Northwestern’s staff knows how to beat the Nittany Lions. Head coach David Braun led an upset over Penn State last season, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly beat them with Ohio State in 2024, and position coach Jerry Neuheisel topped them while at UCLA. While past results don’t guarantee future success, this coaching staff has a proven track record against Penn State.

External factors also favor Northwestern: The Wildcats will be energized for their first game in their newly built stadium, while the Nittany Lions face their first true road test of the season.

To make matters worse for Penn State, it’s a tough matchup on paper. The Nittany Lions may struggle to exploit Northwestern’s two primary vulnerabilities: pass protection and run defense.